(DCWatchdog.com) – In a testimony to the fact that the US is in uncharted territory after former President Donald Trump’s unprecedented conviction, Dr. Allan Lichtman, a professor, known for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections, remains undecided about the 2024 race.
He is assessing the implications of former President Donald Trump’s recent criminal conviction before forecasting the election outcome.
“We have no idea yet what the impact of this is going to be,” Lichtman, a professor at American University, commented to Fox News, expressing uncertainty about how the conviction might influence Trump’s core supporters and other voter groups.
Trump, at 77, was convicted last month by a New York jury on all 34 charges of falsifying business records related to hush money payments.
This event marks the first time a president or major party presidential candidate has been criminally charged and convicted.
Despite this, Lichtman asserts that this situation does not compromise the integrity of his prediction algorithm.
“We do have an unprecedented situation right now. We’ve never before had a former president, or, for that matter, a major party presidential candidate, even charged with a crime, much less convicted of 34 felonies. Now that does not directly affect the [algorithm],” he explained.
Lichtman’s algorithm, which he devised in the 1980s alongside mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, is based on thirteen key indicators that have historically determined presidential election outcomes.
These indicators, known as the “Keys to the White House,” analyze a variety of factors from incumbency to social unrest and economic conditions.
Despite the unusual circumstances surrounding this election cycle, Lichtman notes that it is still too soon to make a definitive prediction, though he suggests Biden currently has the upper hand.
This election cycle is noted for its uniqueness, being the first presidential rematch since 1956, amidst growing third-party influences that could disrupt the traditional two-party dominance, recalling the early 1990s.
Lichtman has not yet committed to a prediction, reflecting on the volatile political landscape.
“Things are very fluid abroad and in America and a lot can change. What I have said is a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose this election. It could happen, but right now a lot would have to go wrong,” he stated.
Lichtman criticized baseless speculation about Biden’s potential resignation.
“This nonsense about Biden stepping down points to the dangers of off-the-top-of-the-head punditry and commentary that is not based on any scientific understanding of how elections work,” he stated.
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