(DCWatchdog.com) – President Joe Biden’s reelection bid might as well be deemed finished, as a new poll considered a benchmark for reliability in Iowa has forecasted an overwhelming scenario for him in key Midwestern battleground states.
The latest Des Moines Register and Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer’s firm, Selzer & Company, revealed that former President Donald Trump secured 50% support among likely voters, surpassing Biden by 18 points.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered 9% support, The Daily Wire reports.
This poll also demonstrated an increase in Trump’s lead following his conviction in a hush-money trial, alongside a significant decrease in Biden’s net approval rating to -39 in June. These results sparked widespread debate on social media platforms.
“In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points,” stated pollster Frank Luntz on X, reacting to the poll’s outcome.
“Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state – which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan,” he added.
Luntz further noted the 2020 results from the same pollster, indicating a narrow 1-point lead for Trump in June, a tie with Biden by September, and a clear 7-point lead over Biden by October.
Meghan McCain, a conservative commentator and daughter of the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ), also commented on the implications for Biden, particularly in Wisconsin where he narrowly triumphed over Trump in the 2020 election.
“There is no scenario where Trump wins Iowa by 18 points but loses Wisconsin,” McCain asserted on X.
“Ann Selzer is arguably the best pollster in the country (certainly Iowa) and her polls should be taken extremely seriously,” she wrote further.
Despite losing Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to Biden in 2020—states he had won over Hillary Clinton in 2016—Trump’s performance in Iowa may still offer valuable insights, according to NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur.
“Iowa is a red state and won’t be competitive in 2024, but the gold-standard Selzer poll is still valuable for this reason: IA has had a 7-10 point delta with key battlegrounds like WI/MI/PA in the last two elections, so the size of Trump’s lead matters. (DJT won it by 8 in’ 20.),” Kapur noted.
Polling nationwide generally indicates a close contest between Trump and Biden, with their first debate of the 2024 election cycle scheduled for next week.
Kennedy, meanwhile, has not yet qualified for the debate but might still meet the criteria.
“It’s not a great sign for Biden that some of his worst numbers come from the best pollsters,” statistician Nate Silver commented on X.
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