(DCWatchdog.com) – Just six months ahead of the presidential election, a new poll showed that former President Donald Trump holds a commanding 15-point lead over Joe Biden in Michigan.
Kaplan Strategies released the survey, which polled 804 people and put Trump at 51% and Biden at 36%, with a margin of error of 3.5% points, which represents a notable gap.
Back in March, both Biden and Trump secured their party nominations for the 2024 presidential race after winning enough primary victories. So far, most polls show a tight race, with either candidate neck and neck or holding slim leads.
Moreover, these so-called swing states, like Michigan, hold sway in elections due to the Electoral College system.
Trump took Michigan in 2016, but Biden flipped it back in 2020, which hinted that this year’s contest could be a nail-biter.
While some polls echo Kaplan’s findings, others diverge.
An Emerson College/The Hill poll last week suggested Biden trails Trump by a hair in Michigan, at 44% to 45%. It also hinted at a similar situation in six other swing states.
However, a Bloomberg News and Morning Consult survey from April showed a different facade, showing Biden leading Trump in Michigan by 47% to 45%. Yet, Trump seems to have an edge in six other pivotal swing states.
Adding to the mix, online betting odds from Polymarket tip the scales in favor of the mandatory president, suggesting he might win Michigan with 57% versus Trump’s 44%.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Kaplan Strategies, the polling outfit behind the eyebrow-raising numbers, does not sit too high in the ranks of pollsters. Their historical track record and methodological transparency earn them a rather lukewarm rating of -0/9.
Heath-Brown, a public policy associate professor at the City University of New York, cautioned against reading too much into any single poll and notes that the trend signals a tight race.
On the other side, Michael Tyler, communications director for Biden-Harris 2024, suggested general polling trends tend to overinflate Trump’s strength while downplaying Biden’s.
He pointed to real voter behavior as a truer barometer of the political landscape, which signals continued strength for Biden and the Democrats while Trump’s camp struggles with cash and cohesion.
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