(DCWatchdog.com) – Following a leaked document published by a German newspaper, European nations are on high alert.
The newspaper BILD informed Russian military is preparing for potential aggression expanding beyond Ukraine.
This classified information from the German Ministry of Defense outlines a series of alarming scenarios that European armed forces are bracing for, indicating a heightened sense of readiness against possible Russian “hybrid” attacks in Eastern Europe.
According to the document, a scenario named “Alliance Defense 2025” could commence as early as this February, with Russia potentially mobilizing an additional 200,000 troops. The scenario suggests that Russia, feeling empowered by a reduction in Western financial support for Ukraine, might launch a significant offensive against Ukrainian forces in the spring.
The document also outlines the possibility of Russia initiating warfare in the Baltics around July, employing severe cyberattacks and instigating unrest among Russian nationals in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. By September, these conflicts could escalate, potentially leading Russia to conduct “Zapad 2024,” a major military exercise amassing approximately 50,000 Russian soldiers in western Russia and Belarus.
The scenario further details that Russia could deploy troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, strategically situated between Lithuania and Poland, both NATO members. It’s hypothesized that Russia could use propaganda to falsely assert an imminent NATO attack, aiming to seize the Suwalki Gap, a critical corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
By December, the document speculates, Russia might exploit the transitional period following the US presidential election to provoke violence and unrest in the Suwalki Gap through fabricated claims of border conflicts or riots.
A UN Security Council meeting in January 2025 could see Russia falsely accusing Western allies of conspiring against Putin’s regime, a move that could lead to Russian troop mobilization to Belarus and the Baltics by March 2025.
In this outlined scenario, Germany would reportedly deploy 30,000 troops for defense against an estimated 70,000 Russian forces in Belarus. By May 2025, NATO might enact “measures for credible deterrence” to prevent further Russian advances, potentially leading to direct combat between Western and Russian forces.
Despite these scenarios, Putin and Russian officials have consistently denied intentions to extend the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders. Nonetheless, these potential plans, as prepared by German military generals, are taken seriously by European allies.
Recently, NATO invitee Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin and the country’s military Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén have acknowledged the possibility of war in Sweden, emphasizing the need for comprehensive preparedness at all societal levels.
The German Defense Ministry, while not commenting on specific scenarios, confirmed that considering various potential scenarios is a routine part of military planning and training.
