(DCWatchdog.com) – Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent candidate, is poised to shake up the 2024 rematch between former President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but it remains unclear which candidate will be more affected by his presence.
Since Kennedy switched from Democrat to Independent last October, polls have indicated he may pose more of a threat to Biden than to Trump.
Yet, recent polls have shown Kennedy’s candidacy potentially hampering Trump’s chances, which sparks speculation about his impact on the November election.
Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research commented, “Kennedy has, I think, a more lasting impact on this race than most people thought he would.”
He continued, “[A]ll he really needs to be on is Arizona, Georgia, you know, Nevada, a handful of states, North Carolina, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin. He only needs to be on the ballot in five or six states to have an impact on this, because even if he only takes 3%, that’s enough to swing a bunch of states.”
In addition, a recent NBC News survey found Trump leading by two points in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. However, when Kennedy, Cornel West, and Jill Stein were included, Biden surged ahead by four points, with Kennedy securing 13% of the vote.
Similarly, a Marist poll showed Biden leading Trump by three points in a two-way race. With Kennedy, West, and Stein in the mix, Biden’s lead widened to five points, with Kennedy garnering 14% support.
In contrast, a Quinnipiac survey indicated that Kennedy’s presence did not help Trump, as both candidates remained tied in both two- and five-way races, with Kennedy grabbing 16% of the vote.
According to RealClearPolitics averages, Trump’s lead against Biden slightly widens with Kennedy and third-party candidates included.
In key swing states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, Trump’s chances improve in five-way races, while they decline in Wisconsin and Michigan.
According to RCP averages, Kennedy’s support ranges from 6.3% to 10.5% across all seven swing states.
Given his multifaceted candidacy, pollsters and strategists find it challenging to determine who Kennedy is pulling more support from. Still, some view Kennedy as a greater threat to Biden others caution that both campaigns should consider him a potential adversary.
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