Seasonal retail hiring is plummeting to its lowest level in 15 years, even as retailers expect record-breaking holiday sales of $1 trillion or more, exposing the ongoing labor market strain under current economic policies.
Story Highlights
- Seasonal retail hiring drops to 265,000-365,000 workers, down from 442,000 in 2024.
- Holiday sales expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time despite hiring cuts.
- The labor market is under strain, with layoffs reaching the highest levels since 2020.
- Tariff costs are being passed to consumers, adding to inflation concerns.
Retail Hiring Hits 15-Year Low Despite Sales Boom
The National Retail Federation reports that retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers from November through December 2025, representing a dramatic decline from 442,000 hires in 2024.
This marks the lowest seasonal hiring level in 15 years, even as holiday sales are projected to reach record levels, exceeding $1 trillion, with growth of 3.7% to 4.2%. This disconnect reveals retailers’ strategy to maximize profits while minimizing labor costs during peak shopping periods.
Fox: This year's holiday hiring is going to be at the lowest level in 15 years. Retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal employees. That compares with 442,000 last year. Why the slowdown? This is indicative of a softer job market pic.twitter.com/HGI5B6WWJf
— FactPost (@factpostnews) November 7, 2025
Labor Market Strain Reflects Economic Pressures
The hiring decline coincides with broader labor market deterioration, as businesses nationwide delay adding workers while accelerating layoffs. Job cuts through October 2025 have reached their highest levels since 2020, signaling economic instability.
NRF chief economist Mark Mathews acknowledged the hiring expectations “reflect the softening and slowing labor market,” though he expressed confidence retailers would still meet consumer demand. This approach forces existing workers to shoulder increased workloads during the busiest shopping season.
Inflation Concerns Mount as Tariff Costs Hit Consumers
Consumer sentiment remains low as inflation pressures intensify, partly driven by tariffs on imported goods that retailers are passing to shoppers. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis shows companies transferred approximately one-third of new import duties to consumers between May and July.
NRF senior economist Jack Kleinhenz confirmed “consumers continue to be concerned about inflation and rising prices,” yet believes Americans will prioritize holiday spending despite economic headwinds and diminished confidence.
Retailers Squeeze Existing Staff Instead of Hiring
Rather than bringing on adequate seasonal help, retailers like Target are asking current employees to work additional shifts during the holidays. NRF economists suggest some retailers added staff in previous years, potentially offsetting reduced seasonal hiring.
However, this strategy places tremendous pressure on existing workers during an already demanding period. The approach prioritizes corporate margins over worker welfare, forcing employees to handle increased customer volume and extended hours without a proportional increase in the workforce to support the holiday rush.
